From Mike Lasche, 8.14.20:
Today, August 14, Florida set more records and recorded more high numbers of Coronavirus.
Today’s reported fatalities were 228, the 5th highest daily total of the pandemic. The record, of 276, was set on Tuesday, August 11.
Today’s reported new hospitalizations were 618, the second highest ever, just 3 shy of the record of 621, set on August 5. Today was also the 4th day in a row that reported new hospitalizations topped 500.
The 7 Day Average of Hospitalizations is at an all-pandemic high of 489, which means that there have been 3,486 new reported hospitalizations over the last week.
The 14 Day Average of Hospitalizations is at an all-pandemic high of 473, which means that there have been 6,622 new reported hospitalizations over the last two weeks.
The closeness of of the 7 Day and 14 Day Average of Hospitalizations suggests a consistent trend.
With the 7 Day Average being more than the 14 Day Average, this means that new reported hospitalizations are increasing.
The increasing number of hospitalizations suggest that the virus is having a more serious impact on Florida than in the past…………and that the high number of confirmed cases are indeed leading to serious illness.
More ominously, with there being a steady trend of roughly 1 fatality for every four hospitalizations throughout the pandemic, a rise in hospitalizations augurs a rise in fatalities.
Below, please find tables and data which support the conclusions above.
Mike Lasche
Florida Walks and Bikes
p.s. Mike is not an epidemiologist but has significant experience in analysis of data in the public, private, academic, and non-profit sectors. These conclusions and data are offered as a public service, to further the understanding of the coronavirus pandemic in Florida. Comments, criticisms, and questions are welcome.
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Below, please find a table which shows the daily reported fatalities from July 31 to August 14. Note today’s total of 228 and the record of 276, set on August 11. Notice how the 7 Day Average of Fatalities is increasing since August 7.
Below, please find a table which shows the daily reported Hospitalizations from July 31 to August 14. Notice today’s total of 618 and the record of 621, set on August 5. Also notice the record 7 Day Average, set today.
Below, please find two graphs, the 7 Day Average of Hospitalizations and the 14 Day Average of Hospitalizations, through the pandemic. Note that both are at all-pandemic highs. Note that the 7 Day Average ends on a higher number than the 14 Day Average, which means that the number of fatalities is increasing, week to week.
Finally, here is a graph which shows fatalities, as a percentage of all hospitalizations, remaining at a relatively steady rate for several months. The rate has remained around 25% since early May. Please note that this is not intended to be a measure of the effectiveness of hospitalization, as a good percentage of fatalities, perhaps 15-30% occur without prior hospitalizations. But, it can serve as a rough guide to the number of fatalities to be expected, based on the number of people hospitalized.
Excellent resource, Just started from the beginning!
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