Expert in Voting Litigation to Board: Don't Redistrict Now

The two final redistricting maps - source: Scgov.net

Spitzer Map 2-1.A

Waechter Map 4-1A

November 12, 2019

TO: Sarasota County Commissioners, Mr. Charles D.Hines, Chair; Mr. Michael A. Moran, Vice Chair; Ms. Nancy C. Detert; Mr. Christian Ziegler; Mr. Alan Maio;

Cc: County Administrator, Mr. John R. Lewis; County Attorney, Mr. Frederick J. Elbrecht With three attachments

FROM: Dr. Gerald R. Webster, Professor Emeritus, Nokomis

RE: Current Effort to Redistrict the Sarasota County Commission Districts

I have followed the debate over whether the Sarasota County Commission electoral districts should be redistricted for many months. Though recently retired, I acted as a consultant and expert witness in voting system litigation for nearly thirty years. I have served as an expert witness in litigation in fourteen states including Florida. I have been hired by the Department of Justice, state governments, local governments, the Legal Defense Fund, NAACP, and Native American Rights Fund, among many others. A large share of these consultations have involved redistricting at the congressional, state legislative, and local government levels

I have degrees in political science and geography with my academic specialty being political geography with an emphasis in electoral geography and redistricting. The majority of my academic career was spent at the University of Alabama and the University of Wyoming. My Vita is attached and may also be accessed at [this link].

Based on my expertise and experience, I would like to provide additional information for the Commission to consider prior to making a decision on redistricting in advance of the 2020 Census. I hope that the County Commission will reconsider and wait to redistrict when the required data are available in early 2021. As I pointed out in a letter to the editor in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune on October 5, 2019 (copy attached), there are serious data problems associated with the current effort to redistrict Sarasota's County Commission districts and, therefore, with the maps being considered. Although I recently returned to Nokomis for the winter, I will be out of state on November 19th and will therefore be unable to attend the public hearing.

The Commission's intent to equalize the relative populations in each single-member district due to potential changes since the 2010 census is understandable. But the use of population estimates can be highly problematic at lower geographic scales. Thus, Stanley Smith and Scott Cody of BEBR found that the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for estimates at the subcounty level was 9.2%, “more than three times larger than the MAPE for counties” (“An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida: April 1, 2010,” Special Population Reports, Number 8, June 2011). As a result, the accuracy of block level estimates of total population as well as breakdowns by race and ethnicity are highly suspect with likely high margins of error.

The use of population estimates does not allow for accurately evaluating the success of the redistricting effort in terms of the equal population criterion (see attached, “Reflections on Current Criteria to Evaluate Redistricting Plans,” by G.R. Webster, 2013, at page 5 for how the equal population criterion is evaluated). Simply said, the use of estimated population data makes it impossible to know if any existing district population contrasts have been corrected, or if they have been made worse than they may be currently. This uncertainty puts the County in a difficult position legally should any challenges be made to the new districts. It is very possible that additional analysis of the new districts on the basis of traditional redistricting criteria will find them flawed and invalid. In addition, there are negative impacts from a legal challenge to the newly approved districts in terms of time and money as well as citizen satisfaction with their local government. In my experience, such litigation is tremendously expensive due to lawyer and expert witness fees, and such cases can drag on for months if not years. The use of the 2020 Census data will provide a much stronger, defensible and acceptable foundation for any redistricting effort by the County Commission.

Clearly, the major problem in attempting to redistrict in 2019 is the lack of current accurate population data at the Census block level, the smallest geographic units in the Census hierarchy which are commonly used to create equally populated districts. The decennial census enumeration collects population data at this level for the country as a whole and will do so again in 2020. The other sources of data such as BEBR and the ACS do not collect data at the Census block level. More importantly, these data are based on estimates, frequently with high margins of error. With respect to the currently proposed redistricting options, Mr. Doty in a September 29, 2019 article in the Herald-Tribune notes that he has no way of calculating the margin of error for the data used but “at the block level it’s going to be high.” I fully agree.

It is true that the results of the decennial census become less accurate as gradual population changes occur throughout a decade. Because the results of the Census are by far the best data for the purposes of redistricting, governmental entities and the courts accept this reality. The best data for redistricting at present are the results from the 2010 Census. These data will remain the most reliable numbers until the 2020 enumeration is completed.

If the county adopts a redistricting plan based on population estimates, it will be impossible to definitely state that the district populations meet the goals of the equal population criterion from a legal perspective. This puts the county in a difficult position legally, and opens up the possibility that additional analysis of the new districts on the basis of other traditional redistricting criteria will find them flawed. For example, without accurate data on race and ethnicity it will be impossible to judge whether the influence of the minority communities has been enhanced or eroded (see Webster 2013, at pages 5-7).

I hope the Sarasota County Commission will reconsider its efforts to redistrict in 2019 and wait until the required data are available in 2021.

Attachments:

Webster, G.R. 2019. “Flawed Population Data Won’t Yield Equal Districts,” Letter to the Editor, Sarasota Herald-Tribune, 5 October.

Webster, G.R. 2013. “Reflections on Current Criteria to Evaluate Redistricting Plans,” Political Geography 32: 3-14.

Webster, G.R. 2017. Curriculum Vitae.

Existing Districta and first round of alternative maps